Estimates and projections of COVID-19 in the Western Pacific

The challenge: 

Countries in the Western Pacific region are at great risk of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics and have health systems that could be overwhelmed with COVID-19. Countries in the region have limited capacity to produce estimates and projections of infections and the required health care needs in response to COVID-19 epidemics.

The project: 

Funded and coordinated by WHO Western Pacific Regional Office (WPRO), we will provide mathematical modelling support to countries within the Western Pacific region to produce estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infections, the potential number of people who will need hospitalisation and intensive care, and the number of deaths due to COVID-19.

The method: 

We will adapt available epidemiological models for COVID-19 to specific country settings to produce estimates and projections of COVID-19 incidence, disease burden and deaths for countries requiring support from WPRO. Using these models, we will assess the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks and the impact of the health system response. We will be working with in-country teams and individuals to ensure inputs best match the current situation and response as well as to help build capacity for countries required to run these models and produce their own results.

The impact: 

Understanding the trajectory of COVID-19 and the impact of interventions and health system scale-up is essential for governments to develop appropriate public health and economic policies in response.

Project contact: 
Senior Research Fellow and Group Leader, Mathematical Epidemiology and Evaluation Research Group
Project collaborators: