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Prisons are complex systems characterised by high burden of public health need, patient access constraints, and transient flow of prisoners between prisons, and prison and the community. Modelling can inform the public health response in terms of impact and cost effectiveness of infectious diseases prevention and management strategy options. Cases studies of hepatitis C (HCV) transmission and COVID-19 in the NSW prison system will be presented.
Dr Jack Stone will present recent research in which HCV transmission modelling was used to estimate the contribution of incarceration to HCV transmission among people who inject drugs in New South Wales and project the impact and the importance of prison-based interventions (HCV treatment and opioid agonist therapy - ‘OAT’) for achieving HCV elimination. Dr Richard Gray will be presenting modelling work assessing the potential impact of mitigation strategies on COVID-19 within single prisons and the entire NSW prison system. This modelling has been used to inform public health policy and practice by correctional authorities in NSW and other Australian jurisdictions.
Dr Jack Stone
Jack Stone is a research fellow at the Bristol Medical School at the University of Bristol. He is also a Visiting Fellow at the National Drug & Alcohol Research Centre at UNSW. His research focuses on the use of mathematical modelling to help understand the transmission of infectious diseases and the impact and cost effectiveness of prevention measures.
Dr Richard Gray
Richard Gray is a Senior Research Fellow in the Surveillance, Evaluation and Research Program at the Kirby Institute. He leads the Mathematical Epidemiology and Evaluation Research Group and has extensive experience designing, implementing, and analysing models of the transmission of HIV, viral hepatitis, other sexually transmitted infections (STIs), SARS-CoV-2, and arboviruses
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